Scotch & Politics - Scotch & Politics

Let's Take a Look Back...

2008-12-10T12:15:00Z

On January 2nd, 2008, I decided to toss out some predictions for the New Year. 11.5 months later, I wonder how I did…?

Please note my disclaimer from that post,

“I’d like to make my first post of the year one where I can look back and say, “Why the hell did I put that in writing? I’m an idiot.” So, let’s make some predictions!”

On to self evisceration!

The Democrats will have their nominee by 2/6. The Republicans will not settle until at least March, throwing off conventional wisdom and the historical reliance on anointed kings by the GOP.
- WRONG. Well hell, the Dem nominee (and now President-Elect, yeehaw) was not even in the lead on 2/6! He did not surpass Senator Clinton until February 12th or so, and did not officially wrap it up until the beginning of June.
The Dems will nominate Barack Obama, who will wait until late spring to choose his running mate… Chris Dodd. The Republcans will nominate Rudy Giuliani, who will immediately tab Mike Huckabee as his VP candidate.
- RIGHT… but mostly WRONG. I got Barack right, got the VP selection and timing wrong. I really got the Repub ticket wrong. Rudy-Creationism ’08? Yikes. Glad I was wrong.
More reports of steroid use in baseball will trickle out, leaving everyone wholly unsatisfied and still incredibly skeptical of every player out there
- RIGHT… I guess. The Mitchell Report made a big splash but fizzled quickly. It is a safe assumption that most are still skeptical and unsatisfied.
Isiah Thomas will not be fired. MSG might be burned down… I will have an alibi.
- THANK GOD I WAS WRONG. Lebron ’10!!!!
Rock and Roll will not make a glorious comeback. Not even close.
- RIGHT. This one was not hard, but I’m willing to listen to suggestions that may prove otherwise.
The spring/summer movie season will mark a return of the blockbuster, with Batman, Superman, and Indiana Jones driving people to the theaters in droves.
- Ehhh… Batman rocked. Indiana Jones was a disappointment. I’m trying to figure out why I thought there was a Superman. I did not foresee the awesomeness that was Iron Man. I didn’t mind The Incredible Hulk.
The writer’s strike will last until early summer. Television audiences will not dwindle much, but television quality will be at an all time low.
- WRONG… and yet RIGHT. I forgot this even happened. Isn’t it the actors turn now?
The Patriots will go undefeated… but they won’t be playing the Packers or Cowboys in the Super Bowl.
- RIGHT. Hehehehehehehe.
Stewart and Colbert will not be as good without their writers.
- WRONG. My hat off to these two gentlemen.
Congress will pass very few major laws, bogged down in election season.
- RIGHT. But since I work in this business, I have to least point out a few successes… Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act, the Housing Bill, extensions of renewable energy tax credits in – ugh – the bailout. Let’s hope it gets better
Global warming will not be solved… that’ll happen in 2009.
- RIGHT. Well, so far. It also looks like emissions have been dipping a bit. Thanks recession!!
Wage gaps will increase, but so will our GDP.
- WRONG. But good golly, wrong in the worst way! Wage gaps increased (see here), but our GDP is decreasing. Great.
The Iraq war will continue, but troop levels will decrease giving the Administration another “success” to trumpet.
- Umm, sort of right. We came to an agreement with the Iraqi Parliament about a deadline, which is actually good.
We will not go to war with Iran. That’ll happen in 2009, if I am wrong and John McCain is elected.
- RIGHT. No McCain, no Repubs in power. No war with Iran… hopefully.
Tom Brady will have another illegitimate child… potentially by Brendan.
- Can’t say for sure. Brendan has been moody recently…
The Yankees and Red Sox will provide us with one of the best seasons in their rivalry. Why? They BOTH have pitching.
- WRONG. The Yankees lineup sucked. The Red Sox underperformed and were basically Papi-less. The Rays are good, quite good. Umm, wow.
Johan Santana will not be a Yankee. Nor a Red Sox (Sock?).
- RIGHT. Too bad he couldn’t pitch out of the Muts’ bullpen too.
Eli Manning and the Giants will storm out to a 7-1 start, with pundits saying he’s “turned the corner” only to then sputter and go 3-5 in the second half, raising questions once again.
- RIGHT… and gloriously WRONG. 11-2, NFC East Champs. Nice.
The Senate will turn more to the Democrats for a second cycle in a row, lead by two Udalls , Mark Warner, and a surprise win in Alaska. The Democrats will also pick up seats in the House – although not as many as generally expected – thanks to the mass retirements of Republicans.
- RIGHT. Hot dang, I nailed this one! Tack on Jeanne Shaheen, Jeff Merkley, Kay Hagan, and maybe Al Franken and it became a blowout for the Dems.
Barack Obama will be elected President.
- RIGHT. Not bad for a prediction made BEFORE the Iowa Caucuses. ;)
S&P will grow, but I still won’t be famous.
- Well duh… but hey it’s good to be back on S&P!!

Go ahead, tell me how wrong I was.

Jed Bartlet Meets Barack Obama

2008-09-22T15:43:00Z

The idea of American exceptionalism doesn’t extend to Americans being exceptional. If you excelled academically and are able to casually use 690 SAT words then you might as well have the press shoot video of you giving the finger to the Statue of Liberty while the Dixie Chicks sing the University of the Taliban fight song. The people who want English to be the official language of the United States are uncomfortable with their leaders being fluent in it.

–Jed Bartlet on what Americans want

McCain's Acceptance Includes Subtle Gaffe...

2008-09-05T20:16:00Z

I’m not one to nit-pick about small screw-ups, but this one brought up some bad memories.

For those of you who watched John McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican Convention last night, you may have noticed that, at times, it looked like McCain was behind a bright green background. Turns out that was not a green screen.

Here’s the full photo:

So what building is that? This one.

That’s right, Walter Reed Middle School in California. In other words, some moron wanted to put a picture of Walter Reed Army Medical Center on McCain’s backdrop (McCain is a veteran, after all), but didn’t bother to double-check his Google image search. Adding a touch of funny to the fail, the principal of WRMS has issued a cheeky statement on the school’s web site acknowledging the mention.

I know this backdrop of photos was obviously put together by some intern a few days before the show, and he’s probably never heard of Walter Reed before in his life up until last week…but the irony of this gaff is just infuriating.

This is the same Walter Reed Army Medical Center that created a national scandal last year because US troops injured in Iraq were being cared for in deplorable conditions and bureaucratic morass. Here’s a quick flashback from the WashPost:

Behind the door of Army Spec. Jeremy Duncan’s room, part of the wall is torn and hangs in the air, weighted down with black mold. When the wounded combat engineer stands in his shower and looks up, he can see the bathtub on the floor above through a rotted hole. The entire building, constructed between the world wars, often smells like greasy carry-out. Signs of neglect are everywhere: mouse droppings, belly-up cockroaches, stained carpets, cheap mattresses.

I still get angry whenever I think of this mess. I can’t begin to imagine how hard it must have been for our soldiers to deal with the trauma of battlefield injuries and then be ignored and neglected when they returned home. To me, this severely damaged the credibility of the Republican Party.

It wasn’t just that the troops were being kep in terrible conditions, its that they were ignored - there were seemingly no plans in place for how to deal with the with serious impairments (mental and phsycial) soldiers were bringing back from the war zones. The Walter Reed scandal was a national travesty, and someone in the Republican Party didn’t bother to care what the place looked like.

For those of you who were curious, this is Walter Reed Army Medical Center:

Thanks LA Times.

Peggy Noonan Calls Palin Pick "Bulls**t"

2008-09-04T01:46:00Z

Kudos to The Huffington Post for leading me to this. Peggy Noonan, the current Wall Street Journal columnist and former Ronald Reagan speechwriter, was caught on a live mic yesterday calling the choice of Sarah Palin “political bullshit.”

I couldn’t agree more.

This has nothing to do with Palin being a woman (although it wouldn’t surprise me if some Johnny-come-lately feminist comments on here that I am a sexist because there is no other defense of her pathetic record). This has everything to do with McCain’s selection being a political blow job to the conservative right.

A Capella Rage Against the GOP

2008-09-03T19:15:00Z

Slated to be the surprise headliner at a politically-charged concert in St. Paul this week, Rage Against the Machine was met with a barrage of riot police and cut power cables just before they were set to take the stage. According to this article, they were too late for the 7pm curfew and lacked the proper permit to perform, but they gave the fans pretty sweet a capella versions of “Bulls On Parade” and “Killing In The Name Of” before the crowd marched toward the RNC.

Despite Morello looking a little bored during his vocal-guitar-riffing, this is still pretty rad, if you ask me. This vid was shot by Minnesota Public Radio:

Full video of the performance after the jump.

Also, what the fuck is Maureen Dowd talking about? What a ridiculous column.

Daily Kos, Liberal Internet Breach the Mainstream

2008-09-02T16:22:00Z

I don’t read Daily Kos too often, but I think pretty much the entire internet was enticed into checking out their site this weekend. I’m of course talking about the absolute storm that was set off by their posting of a libelous, incorrect article that alleged Sarah Palin had faked her own pregnancy to cover for her daughter’s secret, underage pregnancy. It’s a classic piece of hysterical, conspiracy-driven garbage that sensationalist blogs like Perez-Hilton and TMZ are famous for. Actually, that’s not true, TMZ usually has photos and reporters – DailyKos only has armchair (computer chair?) quarterbacks who browse Google News and pass it off as research.

The story broke like this – an anonymous writer named ArcXIX posted an article on Kos:

”Well, Sarah, I’m calling you a liar. And not even a good one. Trig Paxson Van Palin is not your son. He is your grandson. The sooner you come forward with this revelation to the public, the better.”

The real centerpiece of ArcXIX’s article is a photo of the Palin family. Comparing waistlines to his incorrect timetable, ArcXIX studies 17-year-old Bristol Palin’s physique like its the Zapruder film:

Bristol is pregnant in these pictures. She is not carrying belly fat, which grows outwardly wide, and does not become dome-shaped. That’s because fat is generally evenly distributed around the abdomen and a fetus is not. Bristol’s chest is sticking out, a normal body reaction when sucking in stomach muscles.

The article is an un-cited, poorly referenced affair, filled with opinion, conjecture, and poor hypothesis. There are no facts there, no reason to believe this lone poster’s latest conspiracy theory. Nonetheless, within hours of being published it was voted to the “Best of” section of Daily Kos. A short time after that I spotted the link. This wasn’t hard to do, internet news sites Fark, Digg and Reddit (Reddit had it twice on the front page) had linked to it. I also spotted it posted to Facebook, and someone emailed it to me as well. It took less than 4 hours.

The article in question used to be located here: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/30/121350/137/486/580223 but has since been removed. I guess it was too much even for the Kos. Google cache is here for anyone interested.

In the end, the most shocking revelation of all came when the rumors prompted Governor Palin to reveal that the daughter in question (the suddenly much-ogled Bristol Palin) is pregnant right now – for the first time.

Behold, the power of the Internet – some anon can shake a political party, destroy a teenager’s name, and create an international storm. Amazing.

But is that really what happened? Isn’t it less about the writer and more about the network he was part of? The Kos’ policy of anonymous posting certainly gave ArcXIX the gumption to pitch his outlandish scheme. Had he (I know we’re not sure, but come on, ArcXIX has to be a guy) been forced to attach his name to this tripe he might have had second thoughts.

But that can’t be it, its too simple to put this sensation on the writer. This isn’t the “99 Theses,” or “Catcher in the Rye” - this was garbage that probably took 10 minutes to type. Saying the initial post is what drove the story is like saying Mrs. O’Leary’s cow caused the Chicago fire. Sure the cow kicked over the lantern, but the tinderbox city certainly helped the situation.

And “tinderbox” is a good way to describe the leftward side of the web nowadays. It’s the readers of Kos themselves, the hysterical liberal internet, that caused this to happen. When your site is essentially a wasteland of angry, angry liberals, screaming and haranguing on message boards, you should expect that things might get out of hand. And its not just specific to the Kos, this photo is currently one of Reddit’s top headlines. Click a comment thread on Digg, Reddit, or Fark and watch the vitriol fly. Here’s a good example of what I’m talking about. Maybe I’m just biased, but doesn’t it seem like the internet is comprised entirely of liberals, hardcore leftists, anarchists, Europeans, and the guys who write for WorldNetDaily?

The right story, the right allegations, had simply arrived at the right time. A juicy scandal, exposed hypocrisy, and the incredible potential to derail a political campaign were too much for the Kos’ staff. Any freshman journalism student could have seen that there was no story and no proof – but to the liberal internet the story was too spectacular to ignore, and embarrassing the Republican VP candidate was what really mattered.

Lots of bloggers like to wax philosophical about how newspapers and nightly news have become “Old Media” and are heading the way of the town crier. They behold the drastically shrinking subscription rates and declare entire news outlets to be doomed vessels in the Web 2.0 age. But when the great news sources of the last century die off, are journalistic integrity, fairness, editing, and vetting going to disappear as well? In a world where Daily Kos and some a-hole named ArcXIX provide the news – I think it’s a given.

Great roundup of the whole story here, by the Boston Globe…

Maverick

2008-08-31T16:10:00Z

mav·er·ick

Southwestern U.S. an unbranded calf, cow, or steer, esp. an unbranded calf that is separated from its mother.
a lone dissenter, as an intellectual, an artist, or a politician, who takes an independent stand apart from his or her associates.
(initial capital letter) an electro-optically guided U.S. air-to-ground tactical missile for destroying tanks and other hardened targets at ranges up to 15 mi. (24 km). [Origin: 1865–70, Americanism; after Samuel A. Maverick (1803–70), Texas pioneer who left his calves unbranded]

—Synonyms 2. nonconformist, independent, loner.

(h/t VentureBeat)

John McCain, an unbranded steer indeed.

If She's Good Enough for Ted Stevens...

2008-08-29T18:28:00Z

I wonder if VECO was just as nice to her.

Blown Away.

2008-08-29T14:40:00Z

Was that the speech that fifth graders will be reciting 20 years from now? Or is that speech still to come?

I really don't care who McCain picks for VP, I don't think he can affect the positive reaction the whole country has had to that speech.

UPDATE: Whoa. Interesting pick, dude. Going after Hillary supporters, maybe? Someone else needs to touch on this one...

Forget $4/Gallon... $6 Could Be On The Way

2008-06-25T14:21:00Z

If you think your pocketbook or wallet is hurting from the $4 per gallon gasoline that you have been buying recently, hang on to your butts. According to a Rice University study down in H-town, the U.S. could end up with gas costing over $6 per gallon if oil hits $200 a barrel.

Wow.

If you want to see how that compares to the price of gas in the U.S. over the last few years, check out the Energy Information Administration’s website keeping track of the cost of gasoline and about a thousand other things related to the name of the organization.

I’ve never felt so relieved that I sold my car and moved to New York. Of course, the flip side of that is that a package of butter cost me like $6, but in the grand scheme of things, I can’t say that I am totally upset about that. [Thomas Friedman] wrote a great column about breaking our addiction to oil, and (while I totally recognize my bias by not owning a car) I think he’s right. It hurts like hell know, but in the long run we will all be better off for it. If nothing else, maybe less children will grow up with asthma due to all the burned hydrocarbons out there.

If Sports is a Business, then China is Wal-Mart

2008-06-20T14:17:00Z

The IHT comes through for the second time this week with another great feature. This time its about China’s Olympic athletic machine, which, much like the country’s communist government, is more soulless and unrelenting than any corporation.

Its a great read, I suggest you take a look. It paints a shocking picture of how athleticism is perceived in China, and how the communist government has turned sports into a government-subsidized, factory-like system of hardcore training – dedicated to maximizing gold medal returns and pushing its athletes as hard as a possible.

“An astonishing amount of manpower, money and goods have been poured in, so much so that it’s inappropriate to be revealed publicly,” said Lu Yuanzhen, a professor of sports sociology at the Academy of Sports Sciences at South China Normal University. If the country’s athletes do not perform up to expectations, he added, “the entire nation and its people will lose face.”

Not only do the Chinese push their athletes harder than any other, but they also have a nationwide system in place for identifying and cultivating athletes at an extremely young age:

Selection of athletes at the provincial level may begin when they are as young as 6, experts say, with as many as 2 percent of grade school students flagged as promising. These children are placed in all-expenses-paid sports schools and “filtered” through increasingly intensive competitions that weed out all but an elite 80,000 who find homes on provincial teams. Of those, only a tiny fraction will make the next big step, earning a place on China’s national team.

In many sports, parents can go years without seeing their children, and may speak to them only once or twice a year. But local and provincial officials are unstintingly attentive, showering gifts on the families during Spring Festival, China’s most important holiday, to make up for the children’s absence.

Of course, its assumed the Chinese government will always “take care” of their successful athletes by providing good jobs, housing, and pensions in the socialist system. But those spoils only go to the winners, meaning that this system of rewards is a huge motivator for athletes:

“Once you win a world championship, you can go to college for free, or work, or become an official. If you don’t, you get nothing but injuries all over your body. No diploma, no job, no skill.”

– Chen Xiaomin, a women’s weight-lifting champion

It harkens back to the image of the Soviet Union’s old Olympic hockey teams, which were technically a part of the Red Army. These professional-caliber players were enrolled in the army and received officer’s ranks, despite the fact none had any high-level military training.

So this is what we’re up against in Beijing: an athletic commission as ruthless as its mother government. Don’t be surprised if the US should place second in the so-called “medal-count” this year. There’s no way we’re pushing our athletes like this. Good luck, Team USA, United Kingdom, France, Jamaica, Angola, Australia, Korea, Japan, India, etc., etc. You’re going to need it!

Why its Fun to Like the Mets

2008-06-19T14:52:00Z

I told him next time he does that I’m going to get my blade out and cut him. I’m a gangster. You go gangster on me, I’m going to have to get you. You do that again, I’m going to cut you right on the field.

–Jerry Manuel after his second game as Mets Manager

Looks like the Jerry Manuel era is starting off beautifully in Queens.

How To Make Dems Go Ape-Shit Nov. 5

2008-06-19T12:30:00Z

If you’re a Democrat who thinks everything that has happened since 2000 was just a nightmare, check out this analysis from Politico on the possibility of Barack Obama pulling an Al Gore–and I’m not talking about winning a Noble Prize.

What are the chances that Obama could win the popular vote but lose the election? Not very good, but for Democrats, if it were to happen again, especially after eight years of George Bush, I think the heads of roughly 50 million voters would explode the morning of November 5.

Free Speech - As Exclusively American as Cheeseburgers and the H2

2008-06-17T16:44:00Z

I came across this great article in the International Herald-Tribune about a free-speech case currently going on in Canada. The Canadian newsmagazine Maclean’s is under trial not for libelous or inaccurate articles, but for “hate speech.”

Under Canadian law, there is a serious argument that the article contained hate speech and that its publisher, Maclean’s magazine, the nation’s leading newsweekly, should be forbidden from saying similar things, forced to publish a rebuttal and made to compensate Muslims for injuring their “dignity, feelings and self respect.”

Wait a second, a magazine is “forbidden” by law from printing whatever it wants? It may have to pay restitution for injuring someone’s dignity? I’m sorry, but as an American I find this completely nuts.

But wait, it gets stranger:

The British Columbia Human Rights Tribunal, which held five days of hearings on those questions in Vancouver last week, will soon rule on whether Maclean’s violated a provincial hate speech law by stirring up animosity toward Muslims.

What’s a “Human Rights Tribunal?” What’s wrong with having this case tried in a “court” or have a “jury” deliberate the issue? Maybe I’m behind the curve here, but I’m really blown away that someone in North America can be arrested, fined, or imprisoned for saying something. Obviously, there are some notable, understandable free-speech exceptions for some nations (Nazism bans come to mind), but the concept of someone being forcibly silenced by the state for saying something un-PC seems so inhibiting, so repressive, that its downright frightening.

I tracked down the article that caused all this trouble, entitled “The Future Belongs to Islam” by Mark Steyn. It turned out to be a classic “The West is Doomed” scaremonger feature, taking the tried-and-true “We’re Not Having Enough Babies” angle to forecast an Islam-induced cultural holocaust. Along the way, he says Palestinians run a “death cult,” that Palestine is a “pseudo-nation,” that Spaniards are sissies (compelling but requires further debate), and that Africans only care about their “tribes.” Not only that, but this mess runs about 5,000 words and includes two references to My Big Fat Greek Wedding. In other words, its a disjointed, rambling, poorly written rant that just screams “Canadian.”

Here’s a quote, probably the one everyone’s upset about:

In a few years, as millions of Muslim teenagers are entering their voting booths, some European countries will not be living formally under sharia, but – as much as parts of Nigeria, they will have reached an accommodation with their radicalized Islamic compatriots, who like many intolerant types are expert at exploiting the “tolerance” of pluralist societies. Wherever one’s sympathies lie on Islam’s multiple battle fronts the fact is the jihad has held out a long time against very tough enemies. If you’re not shy about taking on the Israelis and Russians, why wouldn’t you fancy your chances against the Belgians and Spaniards?

I’m not going to argue with this article or tell you why its stupid. Trust me, it is. I’m way more shaken by the free-speech issues at play here, and that Maclean’s magazine could now be forced to pay restitution for saying something not nice about Muslims. To give you an idea of how close to home this hits, I am going to quote an opinion column I wrote for my college newspaper back in 2002:

….the highest-ranking Muslim cleric in Egypt wholeheartedly supports suicide bombings. This “man of God” believes that Palestinians have no other methods of fighting back against Israel, and therefore marketplace and bus bombings are their only options. These are the same suicide attacks that Human Rights Watch has declared “crimes against humanity.”

Radical preachers are not “small minorities” and they have not “hijacked” Islam. They have always been there, and they have always been popular. While it’s obvious not every Islamic religious leader is a militant, it’s plain to see that there are plenty of violent ones who definitely hold power within their communities.

Had this article been published in the McGill Daily instead of the mighty Freep, there’s a good chance I would have spent my Senior year on trial before the Quebec Human Rights Tribunal.

I know we all like to rant and rave about how much America drives us nuts, and how whenever America does something dumb we threaten to move to Canada. But issues like this can remind us why we should be proud to live in a country where people can say whatever they want without fear of government retribution. In America, free speech is a civil issue, no government can tell you what to say, and you most certainly can’t be muzzled if someone takes offense at your statements.

Admittedly, this freedom has a few negative, flashy drawbacks – cross burnings and Illinois Nazis being only two of them. But in this country we have enough confidence in our citizens to know that if some lousy writer says we’re at war with an entire religion the people probably won’t rush into the street with machine guns to take revenge.

Yes, free speech causes offense, but its perfectly OK for someone to respond back using the same rights as the author. For instance, if I were to directly counter Mr. Steyn’s article, I would probably write to a blog, competing newspaper, or “letters section” of Macleans and allege that that anyone who alludes to My Big Fat Greek Wedding in their article about the dangers of Islam is a moron and his opinion forfeit.

But instead of beginning a reasoned, civil debate, the issue is brought before a “tribunal” of human rights activists, who then decide whether or not the article is “offensive” and then has the power to levy fines or restrictions on the magazine, making sure they never speak out of turn again.

Shockingly, Steyn makes a good point about this process when quoted in the original IHT article

“Western governments are becoming increasingly comfortable with the regulation of opinion. The First Amendment really does distinguish the U.S., not just from Canada but from the rest of the Western world.”

The regulation of opinion…wow that sounds scary. Thanks a lot, IHT, for reminding me why I’m proud to be an American.

Is this too over the top? Good.

PS: On an unrelated note:AirOne is coming to Boston. Can’t say enough good things about this airline.

I Like This Guy

2008-06-13T20:18:00Z

Gerard Baker of the London Times wrote a great opinion piece this week waxing philosophical on Bush’s farewell tour of Europe. Baker (and myself!) both share the opinion that, for all the apparent heartache and suffering the Europeans went through during the Bush Administration, that whole continent is going to end up missing him a lot.

They’ll miss, first, having a villain in the White House. It’s a really convenient excuse to avoid doing anything yourself on pressing global concerns.

Baker’s article is a great read, check it out!

While i’m here, I’m going to touch on another beautiful aspect of US international relations - when we switch out the old president with a new one its a great excuse for a clean slate with foreign governments. People claim America’s reputation has been horribly damaged by Bush, but truth is about 50% of the problems are going to vanish along with him. If the Dems win the triple majority and we switch political parties, I’d raise that estimate to 75%. No one’s going to protest Obama’s motorcades, and college exchange students will be at least 50% less annoying starting next year.

Not that I really care too much about what Europe thinks. I suppose if it was America’s job to keep the Europe happy we’d have to ratify the Lisbon treaty and start smelling bad. Neither of these things really appeal to me.