Following up on last week’s AL preview, let’s take a stroll through AAAA … err, I mean… the National League!

Baseball season is actually already underway… on the other side of the world. I’d be remiss to avoid mention of the opening. The A’s just split their two game series with the Red Sox in Japan behind a blazing performance from Mr. DL himself, Rich Harden. The Sox didn’t look World Champion-esque in these two games, squeezing out a victory yesterday that was handed on a silver platter to them by Huston Street and Emil Brown. Dice-K had one of his “the strike zone is not my friend” games and Papi straight up sucked. This morning Harden torched the vaunted Red Sox lineup, with only Manny touching him for a solo HR. Jon Lester didn’t look so hot, only lasting 4 innings and giving up 4 runs. If I were a Red Sox fan (eww, the mere thought repulses me), I’d be praying for a healthy Josh Beckett.

Ok, enough AL. Time to focus on the league where the pitchers bat and the managers actually do something. Where to begin…?

There are no teams that stick out as the “team to beat.” Based on last year you have to give some props to the reigning NL champs Colorado Rockies (although if I never hear ROCKTOBER again, I’ll be happy) and stick them at the top of the contender list. Last year’s other playoff teams – the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Cubs – all deserve consideration as none of them suffered any major setbacks in the offseason (and a few made some solid moves). Thanks to the Johan Santana coup, the Queens Chokejobs have rocketed to the top of all the “smart people’s” pre-season lists. Other teams not to be ignored thanks to crafty offseason moves: Dodgers (Joe Torre, I heart you), Padres (Prior was a great signing), Brewers (umm, maybe a post-roid Gagne isn’t such a good signing…), and Braves (rekindling the glory years with Glavine??). Teams to be completely ignored: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Florida, and San Francisco.

Let’s start with the Rock. Their run at the end of last season was the result of great baseball, simply put. They pitched fantastically, they hit well and at clutch times, they defended, and they scrapped. Their lineup is still built from top to bottom with scrappy hitters, peppered with a few behemoths like Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins. The relief pitching looks to continue to be stellar with Manny Corpas closing and Fuentes setting up. The starters are good, and can be very good if they click at the same time (see last September-October). I’m not sold on Jeff Francis as an ace… maybe its his name (Francis does not strike fear into hitters, it makes me think of my old Uncle Franny). Ubaldo Jimenez was a young pitcher possessed at the end of last year but this spring has battled inconsistencies and who knows what they’ll get from Franklin Morales and Jason Hirsh? The Rockies are a team that needs to be playing with a spark. Can they do that in a division that got seriously tougher in the offseason? Ehhh, I’m not sold…

Moving on to the Muts – also known as The Not-So-Amazin’s, Miraculous Until September, and favorite team of fellow S&P “writer who never writes” Andrew. The Santana trade was brilliant. He’s still young, he’s awesome, he gets to pitch with Pedro – who might show him how to grow a stellar jheri curl – and he’s now pitching in AAAA where he gets a free out after every 8th batter. The Mets have no farm system left, but who cares? Their lineup is solid and generally young… save for Methuselah in RF (if they still cart Moises out there). If they can bounce back from that awful collapse last year (I’m looking at YOU, Jose Reyes), then there are no questions. Wright, Beltran, and Reyes are stars. Ryan Church has potential and Luis Castillo once got a hit in 37 straight games, so he’s got that going for him.

The problem with the Mets is pitching, starting and relief. Johan is awesome. Pedro can be a really good #2, but for how long? When will (and I emphasize WILL) he get hurt? John Maine and Oliver Perez? There’s lots of potential, which they showed quite a bit last summer, but can they do it consistently over a whole season? In my opinion, I think they’re SPs will work out, it’s the relievers that scare me. Billy Wags is quite good… most of the time. After him? Eeek, Pedro Feliciano kicked ass in April and May but then remembered he was Pedro Feliciano. Aaron Heilman is incredibly overrated and Jorge Sosa stinks… and so does Scott Schoeneweis. The Mets will go as far as their pitching takes them.

The Phillies will be their main competition in the NL East (sorry Thomas and that other Braves fans). As does everybody else, I really like their lineup. ‘06 MVP Ryan Howard, ‘07 MVP Jimmy Rollins, ‘08 MVP Chase Utley, and everyone’s MVP Pat Burrell can all rake (Burrell not as good as the other 3, but how could I not include Pat the Bat??) I love the Flyin’ Hawaiian Shane Victorino and think Pedro Feliz will play a solid 3rd.

The Phils threw everybody off by moving a successful and happy (i.e. not beating his wife in public anymore) Brett Myers from the closer spot back to the starting rotation. I understand the logic, because the Yankees will be basically doing the same thing with Joba – which I fully agree with – but with Myers its a tad different. The guy is a bit of a nutcase, and when he struggles things go out of whack fast. As a starter, he got thrown off his game much too often. As a closer, he put his stuff on pure adrenaline and pitched great. I’m very interested to see how this goes down.

Myers will be the #2 to Cole Hamels’ #1. Hamels should be a deserving ace, I’m just not fully sold yet. The rest of the rotation includes the ageless Jamie Moyer, the enigmatic Kyle Kendrick, and the perennially hurt Adam Eaton. Suffice to say, I’m not overwhelmed. The bullpen has potential with Flash Gordon and JC Romero working the set up for the mentally damaged Brad Lidge, once he gets healthy. I’m sure Philly fans will be warm and understanding of Brad Lidge as he continues to work through his past demons of playoffs past. Right… I have no idea what to expect from the Phils, but I have made it a point to always listen to Jimmy Rollins. I think they find a way to win the East again.

Let’s put this into high gear… the D-Backs may very well take over the West, supplanting the Rockies. Their pitching looks like it could be world-class. They traded for Dan Haren to make him their NUMBER TWO behind the already brilliant splitters of Brandon Webb. Doug Davis and Micah Owings are serviceable to solid rotation guys, and they’ve got this weird-looking, tall guy named Randy Johnson who I’ve heard might still have some gas left in the tank. If their young lineup hits, this team could win 100 games.

Everyone’s favorite loser, the Cubs, enters another season hopeful… and for good reason too. They’ve got good starting pitching with Zambrano, Lilly, Rich Hill, Marquis and Dempster. Their lineup should pack a punch if Derrek Lee, Soriano, and Aramis Ramirez stay healthy… and if they get decent production from Felix Pie and Kosuke Fukudome (pronounced Fuck-You-Do-Me… no, not really). Their pen is where they could be the most dangerous. I think Kerry Wood might turn into one of the better closers in baseball, which pushes solid relievers, Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry, into set up roles. I think the Cubbies win the central this year. Whether they actually win a playoff game, well that’s a different story.

The Dodgers, Padres, Brewers and Braves all fall into the same category for me. They all made a few moves this offseason (some sneaky, some not) that could pay off huge dividends. The Bravos brought back the favorite of all Mets fans for his awesome performance last September, Tom Glavine, but it was the jettisoning of Andruw (I’m not really that good anymore, but people think I am) Jones that could be a boon. Watch for Mark Texeira to lead a scrappy, young lineup that will pick on opposing pitchers. Braves fans better hope for something from their rotation, otherwise I envision a 3rd (maybe 4th???) place finish.

The Blue team from LA with not that many fans made big splashes with the hiring of Joe Torre (great move) and the signing of Andruw Jones (not so great move). They’ve got some good hitters in their lineup (Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre, Russell Martin…) and good-but-not-great starting pitching (Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Loaiza). Honestly, I don’t think they can match up with the D-Backs and Rockies… unless Torre pulls some magic like he did back in ‘96 (ahhh, the good ol’ days).

The Padres have a good, potentially great, pitching rotation to go along with a very, very good bullpen. As always, everyone doubts whether they’ll be able to hit. But they may not need much offense if a healthy Mark Prior slides into their rotation behind double aces Jake Peavy and Chris Young, and in front of some nerdy guy named Maddux. That staff could be killer. Again, I’m skeptical that they could hold up all summer with little to no offense (who’s their best hitter? Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff? Come on…).

The Brew Crew have a similar story to the Pads, just switched. Their lineup is good, potentially great (buoyed by Prince Fielder, a budding Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, and the sneaky signing of Mike Cameron), but where’s the pitching??? Ben Sheets is very good… when healthy, and when exactly is that? The rest… Suppan, Vargas, Bush, Villanueva? Umm, I’m not so sure about this. As much as I’d love to pick them to make the playoffs, I just can’t do it.

Before I hit the predictions, I want to go on record saying that the Washington Nationals will wind up somewhere very close to .500. They’ve got a brand new (and beautiful by all accounts) stadium, a young and punchy lineup, and a very solid bullpen. All the great brains say their pitching sucks. I question this assertion as that same sucky pitching was streaking by the end of last year. Jason Bergmann, John Lannan, Matt Chico, Odalis Perez and a healthy Shawn Hill might have some people raising their eyebrows at a credible Nats team. Just be on the lookout.

On to the predictions, same as last time please feel free to tell me how stupid I am, but you have to post your own predictions along with the insults!

NL East

1. Phillies
2. Mets 2 gb*
3. Braves
4. Nats
5. Marlins

NL Central

1. Cubs
2. Brewers 5 gb
3. Reds
4. Cardinals (ed: forgot them the first time around, woops!)
5. Pirates
6. Astros

NL West

1. Diamondbacks
2. Rockies 4 gb
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Giants

Playoffs:

• NLDS - Mets over Dbacks, Cubs over Phils
• NLCS - Mets over Cubs

Awards:

• MVP - Chase Utley
• Cy Young - Dan Haren
• Cameron Maybin

WORLD SERIES:

• Yankees over Mets in 6 games
  • MVP: Phil Hughes