After the Super Tuesday ”draw,” pundits across the land have been hyping up the long, long journey we’re in store for that will conclude, as their thinking goes, with a brokered convention. In what would seem near impossible in today’s media driven elections, we may be staring at a major party nomination coming at the hands of delegates via back-room deals in Denver.

The pundits may be prepping their audiences for the inter-party fight, and I imagine they’re relishing the opportunity at watching the “drama” unfold, but there are two other scenarios that could thwart this possibility.

Scenario #1 Obama wins at least 4 out of 5 of today’s contests (I’d guess LA, WA, NE, and VI with ME going to Clinton – I’m copying Kos). He then takes this momentum to the Potomac Primary on Tuesday and takes at least 2 out of 3 (probably DC and MD, just barely losing in VA). This could very well put the “frontrunner” tag on him. Taking his frontrunner status to TX and OH on 3/4, he pulls off two upsets and becomes the clear frontrunner, taking the nomination via some sort of “deal” by early April.

Scenario #2 Clinton surprises today and wins at least 3. This gives her serious momentum heading into Tuesday where she (at least) takes VA handily and makes MD quite close. This gives her the momentum the rest of February heading into two of her strong states on 3/4, Texas and Ohio. She pulls off solid victories there and becomes the presumptive nominee… making it official again sometime in early April.

Scenario #3 This is the one the pundits are hoping for. Obama comes out of today with solid momentum, winning at least 3 of today’s contests. But Hillary comes back on Tuesday, by winning at least VA, and potentially taking MD. They go through the rest of February in a horserace and split 3/4, Texas going to Hillary and Ohio to Barack. This sets up major matchups in PA, NC (watch for the Edwards endorsement…), KY, and OR in April and May. Odds are at this point nobody takes the spotlight and the Dems take the show to Denver. Barring, of course, a Howard Dean intervention… which is quite probable.

Prediction?? Ugggh, the remnants of my hangover tell me not to make any sort of predictions. Buuuuuut, I’m going to let my bias take over. Obama wins handily tonight, takes the show to the Chesapeake where he wins DC and MD handily, and pulls out the upset in VA. This catapults him to frontrunner status which he won’t relinquish.

Don’t forget to harangue me tomorrow morning when Hillary takes 3 states tonight!