The Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike is almost three months old and hard core television watchers (of course I’m not one of them) are starting to feel the effects. Fan favorites like Heroes and House haven’t returned since they went on hiatus in the fall and there is no sign that they will be back any time soon. The whole situation sucks for viewers and it certainly sucks for the networks, but it is a decidedly un-sucky position for the writers.

At the core the current strike is about digital distribution of television shows and movies and what share of any revenues from digital distribution the writers will get. Putting aside whether what the writers are asking for (2.5%) is reasonable it’s clear that the studios are shooting themselves in the head. As long is the strike is still in effect, no writer will produce any new scripted content for television or movies (as long as scabs writing for daytime television don’t count). That’s all well and good but the real exciting bit comes in when you think about the writers.

There are only so many waitress and barista jobs in Los Angeles; Starbucks alone will not be able to support the thousands of people in the entertainment industry who are out of work because of this disagreement. Sooner or later the creativity of the writers (surely they’re not in it for the money) will have to be directed towards something new. Since the writers know how to write it’s unlikely they will channel their talents into juggling or clam diving. The writers will do what they know: write (sometimes compelling and entertaining) screenplays.

If you’ve been paying attention then you remember that, even if the writers are creating compelling, entertaining screenplays, there is no where for them to be broadcast; the union will not allow any WGA created content to be broadcast by anyone other than David Letterman. As more writers feel compelled to write with no viable outlet for the content they create, something will have to fill the void. That something is online distribution.

Until now online distribution of videos has been crappy. YouTube is great for short skits and funny cartoons but I dare you to try to sit down and watch anything longer than ten minutes without loosing your eyeballs. Amazon, Apple and Netflix have movies and television shows available online but they have sub par quality and are encumbered by Digital Rights Management (DRM) imposed by the evil, evil networks and movie studios. Ultimately it’s that last bit - that (almost) all of the good stuff is controlled by large corporations - that has doomed online distribution until now. There’s a big chicken/egg problem there. The studios have no incentive to make a deal with some piddly startup with no cash and no user base and, even if they did make a deal, it would surely be in the studios interest. Likewise, there’s no reason for users to flock to a site that has a handful of feature length films made by second year film students.

With the content out of the hands of the studios this all has the potential to change. Individual writers (along with actors, producers, key grips, etc.) will have the opportunity to negotiate terms that are favorable to both the producers and the distributors. Most importantly those involved may realize that there’s more to running a good business that squeezing every penny out of it at the expense of the customers. This is my big prediction for 2008: if the WGA writers strike extends into the summer we will see upstart online video channels see success. This could be the beginning of the end for the traditional film and video industry, just as Napster was the start of the long fall for the traditional music industry. I, for one, welcome our new ajax-ruby-on-rails-flv-99-cent-download overlords.