Here’s something you don’t see every day: Two independent articles that completely disagree on where China is headed in 2008.

From the Los Angeles Times - “The Great Fall of China”

For the foreseeable future, China will have far less money to spend on its military and will face much deeper social and economic problems at home than experts previously believed.

From The UK Independent - “2008: The Year a New Superpower is Born”

China is set to make 2008 the year it asserts its status as a global colossus by flexing frightening economic muscle on international markets, enjoying unprecedented levels of domestic consumption and showcasing itself to a watching world with a glittering £20bn Olympic Games.

Why the lack of consensus? The latest World Bank study that suggests China’s GDP is actually far lower than previously believed. This report puts China more in the same league as Japan than it does the US. Here’s a great article from the Economist explaining what’s going on.

So where is China headed? I tend to agree with the Independent. The fact that the numbers are slightly different doesn’t change anything – the country’s still a manufacturing behemoth and its not going anywhere but up – especially considering the anticipated 10+% growth rate for 2008. A lot of issues mentioned in the LA Times article – political repression, terrible environmental abuses, and aging populations are almost non-issues, wasn’t China facing these problems last year? All of a sudden old people and crappy air are going to derail this multi-trillion-dollar freight train?

In the end its wishful thinking to assume the Chinese are just going to go away – they’re still going to catch up with us, though it will probably take a few more years than previously thought. Sorry.

Anyone disagree with me? Please?